The report on fiscal policy and inequality jointly produced by the Namibia Statistical Agency and the World Bank in FY17 received wide attention from policymakers and the media. Under Pillar 1, delivery of CPS products and results has been strong, including in economic management (debt management, budget transparency, procurement and public-private partnership legal framework), statistical capacity building and poverty analysis. Knowledge services and technical assistance were funded mainly by trust funds, such as the Institutional Development Fund, the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building, and the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative (FIRST). The Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) FY14–FY17 has delivered on most of the planned advisory activities within its limited program and achieved some important results.
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Namibia’s past steady economic growth has not been enough to deal with the country’s triple challenge of high poverty, inequality, and unemployment. The weakening of growth in the last few years combined with the COVID-19 shock further put at risk social development progress. Progress toward reducing inequality has been slow and as a result, Namibia remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. The Gini index was estimated at 63.3 in 2003, 61.0 in 2009, and 59.1 in 2015. These developments, along with lower diamond and mineral production, in a context of planned fiscal consolidation, have created challenging conditions for growth. The reduction in precipitation also affected the broader economy through lower electricity and water generation, with repercussions on industrial production. Severe drought conditions experienced in 2019 constrained agricultural output and led to a sharp decline in harvests. Typically, female-headed households, the less educated, larger families, children and the elderly, and laborers in subsistence farming, are particularly prone to poverty. However, in part due to the negative impact of COVID-19 on livelihoods, poverty rates are projected to increase, with the upper middle-income poverty rate projected to stay near 65% through 2022. Since its independence in 1990, Namibia had achieved notable progress in reducing poverty, halving the proportion of Namibians living below the national poverty line to 28.7% in 2009-10 and to 17.4% by 2015-16. The pandemic mostly affected already vulnerable people, which threatens to widen social gaps further and increase already extremely high inequality. With an increase of 200,000 in 2020, the number of poor people measured by the upper middle-income poverty line ($5.5/person/day in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity terms) has reached a record-high of 1.6 million. Progress on structural reforms will be required to raise Namibia’s growth potential. Going forward, the growth outlook is subject to significant uncertainty given the unknown profile of the pandemic and likelihood of further restrictions in activity if additional infections waves materialize. Corresponding negative per capita GDP growth and slow job creation are projected to maintain poverty near 65 percent (US$5.50 line). The rebound is expected to be slower than initially expected, with growth projected at 1.2 percent in 2021 and 2.4 percent in 2022. Real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 8.5% in 2020.
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The COVID-19 pandemic is having an unprecedented impact on Namibia’s economy and has exacerbated preexisting structural challenges. Namibia subsequently suffered from falling commodity prices, weak growth in key trade partners (Angola, South Africa) and tight fiscal policy on the back of government’s effort to rebalance public finances. Leading up to the mid-2010s, investments in mineral extraction, a boom in exports and government spending underpinned growth. The economy has since struggled to recover. The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened socio-economic inequalities.Īfter experiencing average annual growth of 4.4% between 19, Namibia’s economy stagnated in 2016 and fell into recession in the following year. Political stability and sound economic management have helped anchor poverty reduction and allowed Namibia to become an upper-middle income country. However, socio-economic inequalities inherited from the past apartheid system remain extremely high and structural constraints to growth have hampered job creation. It is the driest country in Sub-Saharan Africa, and is rich in mineral resources, including diamonds and uranium.
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Namibia is a small country of about 2.5 million people, with a long coastline on the South Atlantic, bordering South Africa, Botswana, Zambia and Angola.